Consequence modeling involves the determination of the impacts of process accidents involving hazardous materials on people, the environment, and the process.
The amount and form of hazardous material released is determined for toxic materials, flammables, and explosives (called the source term). The dispersion of the released material through and beyond the facility is studied. The distance traveled and area covered are determined. For toxic materials, their effects on people and the environment are evaluated. For flammables, the impact of the heat radiation from a fire on people and equipment is calculated. For explosive materials, the impact of blast overpressures on people, equipment and structures are calculated. Models tailored to each particular situation are used to evaluate consequences. Gas, two-phase, and liquid releases are modeled and their discharge rates are calculated. Dispersion is modeled for buoyant or heavy gases, as appropriate, taking account of the range of atmospheric conditions possible at the time of release. Toxicity data and dose-response models are used to model toxic effects. Various types of fires are modeled including pool, jet, flash, fireball, and warehouse fires. Types of explosions modeled include confined, unconfined, and dust explosions as well as BLEVEs (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion), thermal decompositions, and runaway reactions.
Source term determination
We calculate the amount of hazardous material released in an accident and we provide a report that documents the results of the calculations.
We calculate distances to various concentration endpoints for a released material and the area covered by the plume. We provide a report that documents the results of the calculations.
We determine the impacts of toxic material releases on people on-site and off-site and the environment and the impacts of fires and explosions on people and property. We provide a report that documents the results of the calculations.
Sensitivity, importance and uncertainty analysis
We determine the input variables to which the results of consequence modeling are most sensitive and we determine which variables play the most important role in contributing to the results of the analysis. We also propagate uncertainties in the input variables through the analyses to determine the uncertainties in the calculated results. We provide a report that documents the calculations.
Companies employ dispersion and consequence modeling for various purposes including determining impact distances for EPA’s Risk Management Program (RMP) regulation, assessing the significance of hazard scenarios identified during PHA, and providing input to risk analysis. Reliance on purely qualitative analysis is insufficient where high consequence, low probability accidents are concerned since qualitative consequence estimates are subjective. Quantitative analysis provides a sounder basis for decision-making when considering the tolerability of catastrophic accident consequences.
Due Diligence Support Dust Hazard Analysis and Management
Dust Hazard Analysis and Management
Emergency Response Programs
Expert Technical Witness - Legal Support Services
Facility Siting & Consequence Modeling
Hierarchy of Controls Analysis (HCA)
Human Factors Review and Analysis
Inherently Safer Technology
Layers of Protection Analysis
LNG Industry Support
Management of Change (MOC) - Process and Organizational Change Assessment
NEP Compliance Support all Industries
Procedure Development and Enhancement
Process Hazard Analysis (PHA)
Project Support and Process Integration
PSM / RM Program Enhancement and Optimization
PSM / RMP Auditing
PSM Program Development
Quantitative Risk Assessment
Risk Management Program (RMP) Support
Safeguards Protection Analysis (SPA)
Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS)
Safety Management Systems
Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS) Review